Three-day work week, anyone? Report details ways pandemic may change labour markets

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The COVID-19 pandemic is fuelling trends that could have far-reaching effects on the Canadian labour market, including existential changes that might see the end of workaholism and the adoption of a three-day work week, according to a new report from a Toronto-based think-tank.

“The value placed on professional aspirations and our relationship to work is shifting, and individuals may be happier with less hours of work, less income and new work norms,” states the report, titled Yesterday’s Gone, from the Brookfield Institute for Innovation and Entrepreneurship at Ryerson University.

“Workaholic extinction” is just one of 34 specific trends that are related to eight “megatrends” outlined in the think-tank’s report, which was funded by the federal government-funded Future Skills Centre. While not intended to be a prediction of the future or a deep dive into any one trend, the study looks at developments that could shake up Canadian employment by 2030.

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The report delves into the possible futures that await Canada’s labour market in post-pandemic times — touching on developments that are already happening and those that may be more distant possibilities — and aims to get them on the radars of policymakers, businesses and workers.

For example, it notes that 53 per cent of those surveyed in an Angus Reid Institute poll last year said that making a 30-hour work week standard in Canada would be a good idea. The shift in values that might emerge could lead in 2030 “to new kinds of work, a three-day work week, more part-time positions, gig work, freelancing, and portfolio careers,” the report says.

The study is also trying to get the conversation going as it notes that COVID-19 has caused “significant disruption” for Canadian workers over the past year, making connections between employees and employers crucial during the economic recovery.

“It is a very challenging time to make truly future-focused decisions,” said Jessica Thornton, one of the report’s authors and a collaborator at the Brookfield Institute. “There are scenarios where our way of life is just going to be radically different from now on.”

The megatrend “Our Lives Online,” for example, notes that the internet is becoming a bigger part of people’s days, as they work from home more and then spend their downtime streaming shows on Netflix. This, the report says, could lead to a larger number of Canadian workers decamping from downtown areas where offices are located (perhaps sparking the economies of some rural communities in the process) and a surge in online job training, which could affect universities.

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“Shifting Power” points out that small businesses have been hit hardest by the pandemic, while some massive corporations have thrived, which could mean further market consolidation in the future. This could wind up weakening worker bargaining power, weighing on pay and benefits, as well as act as a drag on entrepreneurship, the report says.

One section even looks at the possibility of another pandemic, which could cause more businesses to close and create companies specifically designed to respond to such crises. It may also make it hard to find workers for hospitality, retail and restaurant businesses, perhaps someday prompting governments to offer hiring incentives for those positions, the report says.

The study looks at pre-existing issues that were there before COVID-19 as well, such as increasing automation, systemic racism and climate change. There are caveats to the trends, too, such as rising house prices in Montreal and Toronto that suggest downtown living is not dead yet.

“We’re living in uncertain and strange times, making it especially challenging to plan for the next year, never mind the next decade,” it says. “And yet it is critical in our current economic climate that we understand the breadth of potential changes ahead, to better prepare workers for the future of Canada’s labour market.”

Financial Post

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