Michigan basketball has another big road test.
The Wolverines play at Purdue in West Lafayette, Indiana on Friday night, facing one of the hottest teams in the Big Ten.
The Boilermakers have won four consecutive games, starting with a late comeback win over Michigan State in East Lansing on Jan. 8, and most recently, a road win at No. 18 Ohio State on Tuesday.
Michigan (12-1, 7-1 Big Ten) and Purdue (11-5, 6-3) have played plenty of competitive and entertaining games in recent years — and Friday’s contest should add to that list.
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Here’s what to watch in the game (7 p.m., FS1):
Big vs. bigs
Both teams rely heavily on star centers to carry the scoring load. Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson averages a team-high 15.7 points and 7.5 rebounds; Trevion Williams leads Purdue with 15.4 points and 9.5 rebounds. Last season, the Wolverines saw how difficult Williams can be to stop when he scored a career-high 36 points and nearly led Purdue to an upset at Crisler Center on Jan. 9, 2020.
Last season, the Boilermakers rotated Williams and Matt Haarms — Haarms transferred to BYU in the offseason — and freshman center Zach Edey plays 14.6 minutes per game this season. Williams is putting together a career-best season as the focal point of Purdue’s offense. When he is on the court, he uses 35.3% of his team’s possessions — second-most in the nation. His offensive rebounding percentage of 17.2% ranks ninth, as he averages 3.5 offensive rebounds per game. Williams does a good job of getting to the free-throw line by drawing 6.5 fouls per 40 minutes. He doesn’t do a good job of converting those opportunities, though, having made 32 of 67 (47.8%) of his free throws thus far.
Williams doesn’t have the athleticism or 3-point shot to force Dickinson to guard him outside of the paint, and Dickinson is also three inches taller, but Williams is a savvy inside scorer with good footwork and finishing skills. Dickinson has been careful to avoid foul trouble this season, and this is another game that will put that ability to the test. One underrated aspect of Williams’ game: His passing, as he averages 2.2 assists per game.
3-point shooting
Purdue may not be as deadly from 3-point range as it was a few seasons ago, but the Boilermakers are still making 35.1% of their 3s, and have the capability to shoot their way to a win. They are streaky, and lately, have not shot well from distance: They went 3 of 24 against Michigan State, 6 of 32 against Penn State and 5 of 20 against Ohio State. The one above-average performance took place at Indiana, when Purdue made 11 of 17 (64.7%) from deep. Purdue has six players who have made double digit 3s, but three of those players are shooting 31.4% or worse. The shooters to watch include Sasha Stefanovic, who has made 41 of 90 3s (45.6%); Brandon Newman, who has made 23 of 60 (38.3%); and Isaiah Thompson, who has made 15 of 37 (40.5%).
After a shaky start, Michigan’s 3-point defense has steadily improved, especially during conference play; the Wolverines will have to hope that carries over to Friday. One potential advantage: Michigan should allow Dickinson to guard Williams or Edey one-on-one instead of doubling the post. That could limit open 3s for Purdue. Meanwhile, if the Boilermakers choose to aggressively double Dickinson like other opponents, the Wolverines might find themselves with quality looks.
Avoid turnovers
Although Michigan did not have Eli Brooks in its first loss of the season Saturday at Minnesota, and the Wolverines did not help their chances of winning with the way they started the game. Michigan fell behind early thanks to a flurry of turnovers and spent the rest of the game unsuccessfully trying to catch up. Although the pandemic has changed the atmosphere of road games, the Wolverines probably don’t want to fall behind early again. A clean start bereft of the sloppy passes that dominated their previous loss would go a long ways toward pulling out a road win. Luckily for Michigan, it is playing a team that doesn’t force many turnovers: Opponents have a turnover percentage of 16.6% against Purdue, which ranks No. 297.
Prediction
Coach Matt Painter is one of the best tacticians in the conference, so it’ll be interesting to watch what Purdue does against Dickinson: Do the Boilermakers let him go to work down low in the post against a single defender, or will they send help and risk giving up open 3s? Purdue is playing well and is at home. But Michigan at full strength has a lot of weapons — and also has a defense equipped to give the Boilermakers a hard time. Pick: Michigan 75, Purdue 71
Contact Orion Sang at . Follow him on Twitter @orion_sang. Read more on the Michigan Wolverines and sign up for our Wolverines newsletter.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball vs. Purdue: Scouting report, prediction
