The Ravens are in with a win in Week 17 — here’s how they can get in with a loss originally appeared on NBC Sports Washington
The Ravens, for the first time in weeks, have a simple task next Sunday against the Bengals: Win, and their playoff scenarios are taken care of.
With a win over the Giants on Sunday, paired with losses by the Colts and Browns, the Ravens have put themselves in a position to clinch a playoff spot simply by beating the Bengals. No math needed, no crazy what-if scenarios. It’s simple for them right now.
But if they go to Cincinnati and lose, they could still sneak into the playoffs with some help. That scenario, however, requires some what-ifs.
Right now, according to FiveThirtyEight, the Ravens (10-5) have a 93 percent chance to make the playoffs before any games are played. If they lose to the Bengals, that percentage will drop to 56 percent.
Should they lose they’d need some help once again, but there are a few ways to get it. All of these scenarios are independent from one another, as to be expected.
Firstly, a Ravens’ loss next week guarantees the Dolphins (10-5) a playoff spot, no matter if they win or lose against the Bills. So, in this hypothetical, the Ravens would be unaffected by the Bills-Dolphins game. Miami would snag one of the three wild card spots.
A Colts (10-5) loss to the 1-14 Jaguars would also clinch a playoff spot for the Ravens, though it’s unclear how likely that option is. The Jaguars, while they did beat the Colts in Week 1, have lost 14 straight games and figure to undergo massive changes this offseason. The Colts are the team in the AFC that needs help right now.
A Titans (10-5) loss to the Texans doesn’t affect anything for the Ravens other than playoff seeding, as the Colts would likely be the AFC South champions in that scenario. If that were the case, the 10-6 Ravens would be behind the 10-6 Titans in the AFC standings due to a head-to-head tiebreaker.
A Browns (10-5) loss to the Steelers would also put the Ravens into the playoffs, as well as nearly tank the Browns’ playoff hopes. The Browns are win and in.
Broken down more simply, the Ravens will need a loss from the Browns or Colts to get into the playoffs if they cannot take care of business against the Bengals. Of course, it’s unclear how likely those scenarios are with the Colts facing the team with the No. 1 pick and the Browns facing a team with the AFC North title in the bag already.
If the Ravens lose and the Browns and Colts win in Week 17, the Ravens will be sitting at home during Wild Card Weekend despite their 10-6 record.
The Browns and Colts losses on Sunday played a major help to this week’s games, as now the Ravens don’t have to hope and pray for one team to lose — they’ve got options if they need.
In the AFC, there’s going to be a 10-6 team left at home for the playoffs. But the Ravens can avoid that by going 11-5.
