In televised remarks on Monday, Lukashenko stated that “latest occasions confirmed us that we have to keep near our massive brother and cooperate extra carefully on all issues, together with financial ones.”
Within the assembly, Putin reiterated that Russia has agreed to supply Belarus a mortgage within the area of $1.5 billion. The 2 presidents additionally mentioned the “Slavic Brotherhood” joint navy drills that kicked off right this moment in Belarus, with Putin saying Russian items will return house after the coaching.
Previous to the assembly, analysts had anticipated that Monday would lead to some sort of settlement that retains Lukashenko in place, at the least for now. Nevertheless, it is nonetheless unclear whether or not that settlement will finally result in a transition of energy, brokered by Russia, or to a extra full-throated help for Lukashenko.
And by merely sticking to his earlier commitments on Monday, Putin has shed little gentle on his long-term plan for Belarus.
“For Russia, the important thing issues stay as they have been on the outset of this disaster: Not dropping Belarus to the West, not permitting an unstable or unpredictable scenario in a neighboring nation, and never permitting folks energy to pressure a change in management,” stated Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow on the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham Home.
He added that Putin has choices to stop this from occurring, together with “covert or overt help for Lukashenko, better integration … or within the worst case, managing an orderly transition of energy to somebody much less prickly for Moscow to take care of than Lukashenko.”
The pair’s relationship has been prickly over the previous 20 years for a wide range of causes. Within the 2000s, Lukashenko tried to distance himself from Russia in an try and ditch his strongman picture. They’ve additionally argued over gasoline costs, with Lukashenko repeatedly complaining in regards to the excessive costs provided by Russia lately. Putin has maintained his authorities isn’t going to supply any reductions earlier than Belarus agrees for a deeper union integration with Russia, a undertaking unpopular amongst Belarusians.
Nevertheless, Lukashenko is a identified amount to Russia. And Putin traditionally isn’t any fan of regime change in nations dwelling beneath dictatorship.
“Moscow not solely prefers to maintain its buddies in energy in autocratic regimes, but additionally extra broadly prefers stability and predictability to sudden adjustments in geopolitics,” stated Giles. He provides that this could possibly be down to 2 of Putin’s most acute issues: “The fantasy that that is all a part of an ongoing Western marketing campaign to overthrow regimes and its eventual goal is Moscow; and the truth that when leaders whom the West dislikes are overthrown, as with Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, they tend to be lynched.”
For Lukashenko, the inherent weak spot of his place signifies that he might must trade ceding better management of Belarus to Putin in trade for Russian help that retains him in energy.
“Lukashenko goes to Russia whereas he has some political area,” stated Franak Viacorka, non-resident fellow on the Atlantic Council and journalist primarily based in Belarus. “He has eliminated the opposition’s institutional devices that would take away him from energy, at the least in the intervening time. So, regardless that he’s visiting Putin understanding how weak he’s, he’s additionally capable of exhibit that he’s nonetheless finally accountable for the safety forces and authorities.”
All of which signifies that each leaders might have reached a short lived settlement by means of gritted tooth, as Putin concedes that Lukashenko is his least-worst choice for now, whereas Lukashenko does what it takes to stay accountable for his nation.
