NFL Week 8 – Best Bets Against the Spread From the SI Gambling Team

Over the course of this year’s 2020 NFL season, the SI Gambling team, along with a few of our friends from the SI MMQB NFL team are putting our collective heads together to pick our top game of the week against the spread. We’ll keep track over the course of the year for bragging rights as well as transparency. Our team collectively had its fourth consecutive winning week at 7-6-0 ATS, putting the squad at 51-38-1 ATS overall at just under 58%!

Over at SI PRO, the “Vegas Whispers” NFL betting plays and information from SI Gambling insider Frankie Taddeo have now gone 43-28-0 ATS as well as 11-1-0 on Thursday Night Football. Yesterday for Falcons vs. Panthers, we did not have an official “Vegas Whisper” play on the game. However, SI PRO members were alerted to one prop bet play of Todd Gurley UNDER 17.5 receiving yards hours before the game began.

Before checking out the team’s selections and “best bets,” here are the latest Week 8 NFL lines at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Editor’s Note – Odds are subject to change.

NFL Best Bets for Week 8

Please note: These are our FREE picks, not our PREMIUM picks which are reserved for MEMBERS only at SI Fantasy PRO. Members receive alert notifications immediately upon pick release.

Ben Heisler (@bennyheis)

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-6.5) | TOTAL: 51.5

With wind chill temperatures in the 20-degree area on Sunday, along with 25-30 mph sustained wind gusts that could go up to 40 mph, there’s not going to be much room for a downfield passing game.

While Aaron Rodgers could likely complete a perfectly thrown deep ball in a hurricane, head coach Matt La Fleur will have no problem calling up plenty of runs for Jamaal Williams. He stepped up last week in the absence of Aaron Jones and with Jones ruled out, he won’t skip a beat after over 100 combined yards last week against Houston.

The total at several sportsbooks has already dropped to as low as 50, so it wouldn’t surprise me if DraftKings Sportsbook ends up following suit shortly. For now, I’ll happily get on board with 51 plus the hook.

BEST BET: Vikings @ Packers UNDER 51.5 – Now down to 51

Frankie Taddeo (@Frankie_Fantasy)

Tennessee Titans at Cincinnati Bengals (+5.5) | TOTAL: 53.5

Normally I would be looking to back the feisty Bengals (1-5-1 SU; 5-2 ATS) here in a typical “letdown / trap” spot here for the Titans (5-1 SU; 2-4 ATS). However, coming off that 27-24 loss to Pittsburgh that knocked them from the ranks of the unbeaten. 

I think Tennessee will come out and look to dominate on the ground and in the air with Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown early and often. Hopefully, the Titans can finish drives and find the endzone, because my one concern backing this road favorite here is the shaky kicking game and the suddenly inconsistent Stephen Gostkowski. Despite that, I am willing to back the Titans at less than the prime number of -6. Give me the Titans to get back in the win column and improve to 3-0 on the road and earn their first cash against the number away from Nashville in 2020.

BEST BET: Titans -5.5 (-110) – Now up to Titans -6

Corey Parson (@TheFantasyExec)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-4) | TOTAL: 46.5

BEST BET: Ravens -4

Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano)

Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos (+3) | TOTAL: 44.5

The Chargers are coming off a win, albeit against the Jaguars, while the Broncos were manhandled by another AFC West foe, the Chiefs. Justin Herbert is playing at a high level, while his Denver counterpart Drew Lock looks like he’s the rookie in this matchup. The Bolts defense is getting healthier, and Denver’s offensive line certainly isn’t doing Lock any favors having been sacked five games in their last two games. With or without Phillip Lindsay, I don’t see the Broncos being able to keep up with the Chargers while Herbert is playing lights out.

BEST BET: Chargers -3 – Now up to Chargers -3.5

Bill Enright (@BillEnright)

New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs (-19.5) | Le’Veon Bell Rushing Yards: 35.5 (-112)

I’m focusing on the expected game script for the Chiefs match-up against the Jets. Favored by over 19 points, the expectation is Kansas City will be up by plenty heading into the 3rd and 4th Quarters. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if Patrick Mahomes gets to rest for most of the second half. Combine the big lead I expect the Chiefs to have with the revenge factor of Le’Veon Bell facing the team that just cut him two weeks ago, and I am all over the OVER on Bell’s rushing yards.

BEST BET: Bell OVER 35.5 Rushing Yards

Roy Larking (@StatsGuru6)

New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills (-4) | TOTAL: 41

Cam Newton and the Patriots (2-4) head out on the road after two losses at home and three straight overall. Following an 18-12 Week 6 loss to Denver, New England was steamrolled 33-6 by San Francisco last week. Josh Allen and the Bills (5-2) return home to Bills Stadium after snapping a two-game losing streak with an 18-10 win in New York over the Jets. Buffalo has lost seven straight against New England and are 5-35 straight up since the 2000 season. New England is a mess, especially on offense, so those numbers can be ignored. The Patriots run defense gave up 197 rushing yards (5.3 YPC) and four touchdowns against San Francisco.

Understanding it was against the hapless Jets, Buffalo heads into this contest with momentum on defense. The Bills held New York to just four total yards in the second half last week. The 49ers had a huge time of possession edge (38:23 to 21:37) and Buffalo will look to duplicate that with a heavy ground game. Allen will have a full complement of receivers as John Brown is expected to return after sitting out against the Jets. Newton will be without WR Julien Edelman who is out after undergoing knee surgery on Thursday. New England has scored 28 total points during their last three games. Don’t expect the Patriots offense to break out of that slump anytime soon.

Buffalo is a -4 point favorite at DraftKings – Lay the line and back the Bills.

BEST BET: Bills -4

Steve Renner (@Steve_Renner)

L.A. Chargers (-3) at Denver Broncos | TOTAL: 44.5

There are a lot of games this weekend which might feature some tough weather in them, but ironically the one in Denver which saw snow last weekend will be clear and 60 degrees around game time. The Chargers have become a vertical offense under Justin Herbert and should be able to continue to rack up points against the Broncos this weekend. With offense up so much this year this is just too low of a total to overlook. Play the over, and get some action in this game in your fantasy lineups this weekend as Drew Lock and Justin Herbert get ready to air it out for the first time.

BEST BET: LAC @ DEN OVER 44.5

Ian Ritchie (@SIGambling)

Los Angeles Rams at Miami Dolphins (+3.5) | TOTAL: 46

The Rams have established themselves as a defensive powerhouse and rookie QBs are an unimpressive 0-5 against Aaron Donald in their starts.

Taking Fitzmagic from behind center is the best long-term move, but for this week. It’s not going to end well for Tua and his teammates. Take the better defense with the better rushing attack and take your ticket to the window

BEST BET: Rams -3.5

Scott Atkins (@ScottFantasy)

New England @ Buffalo (-3.5) | TOTAL: 41

Considering the state of the Patriots offense (poor QB play, injuries to Edelman etc) I can understand why many are predicting the Bills to smash the Patriots and finally cement their role as top dogs in the AFC East, but there’s a coach on the other side that has to have figured out this has to be a down and dirty style game to win. Coming off a loss I always side with the Xs and Os and Bill Belichick. Plus, with the weather and wind expected, it’s a great week to ride the unders in games where it fits.

BEST BET: Patriots @ Bills UNDER 41

Casey Olson (@Y2CASEY)

Vikings at Packers (-6) | TOTAL: 51

The two teams faced each other week 1, where we saw Green Bay come out on top 43-34, and the game wasn’t really as close as the score suggested. Aaron Rodgers had thrown for 364 yard and 4 TDs, while Kirk Cousins, well, was Kirk Cousins. As things have settled, the Vikings come into Green Bay at just 1-5, and have yielded roughly 32 points per game before trading one of the teams best on the defensive side in Yannick Ngakoue. The Packers on the other side sit 5-1 SU and ATS, and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings against Minnesota. Only having to cover 6 points is truly a gift this week as I expect a Rodgers & company route.

BEST BET: Packers -6

Gary Gramling, The MMQB (@GGramling_SI)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-4) | TOTAL: 46.5

Betting the under in any game this season is taking your life into your hands, but you have two great defenses and two offenses that don’t turn the ball over often (don’t be misled by Ben Roethlisberger’s three interceptions last week—one was on a Hail Mary, one was a deflection at the line of scrimmage and the third was in his receiver’s hands before being jostled out and caught by a second defender). 

You’re likely looking at a field position battle on Sunday. Roethlisberger has made 14 career starts at Baltimore and the Steelers averaged just 15.9 points in those games, and Lamar Jackson’s worst career start as a pro came in his lone game against Pittsburgh, last October. Plus, going back to 2018, the total has gone under in 11 of the Ravens’ 12 home games in which the total was 45 or greater, as well as in all nine of the Steelers’ road games in which the total was between 42 and 50.

BEST BET: Steelers at Ravens UNDER 46.5

Mitch Goldich, The MMQB (@mitchgoldich)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-4) | TOTAL: 46.5

This is a little scary, making my best bet against a team as dangerous as the Ravens, but I was surprised by this line. The Steelers are the only undefeated team in the league, and I think they’ve really looked the part too. This has happened a few times in recent weeks, that I’ve been surprised by the line in the Steelers’ games. It’s almost like nobody knows what to do when there’s only one team in the whole NFL playing good defense. But they’re chugging along at 5–1 against the spread, with four straight wins. Last week I was surprised to see them as slight underdogs against Tennessee in a game I figured they’d win. 

Once again I have the Steelers winning this game outright, so I’m more than happy to get four points. Of course this game could be a toss-up or come down to a field goal at the end either way, and I’m pretty surprised I can get Pittsburgh +4 and not even worry which team is setting up for that kick.

BEST BET: Steelers +4

Check out this week’s staff picks from the MMQB Team!