NFL DFS Week 12: Wide Receivers Report – High Impact Tyreek Hill

Week 12 NFL DFS Reports

DeAndre Hopkins, ARI (DK – $7,100/FD – $8,500)

The insane every other week pattern for Hopkins held form in Week 11 (5/51) for Hopkins. He has 47 catches for 649 yards and three touchdowns on 59 targets over his top five contests. The following week after his top games (14/151, 10/137, 6/131/1, 10/103/1, and 7/127/1), Hopkins only has 25 catches for 263 yards and one touchdown on 37 targets. The Patriots fell to 13th in wide receiver defense (36.17 FPPG) after allowing 36 catches for 507 yards and seven touchdowns. Their worst showing came in Week 2 (15/228/4) vs. the Seahawks. Three wide receivers (Tim Patrick – 4/101, Brandon Aiyuk – 6/115, and Breshad Perriman – 5/101/2) gained over 100 yards, and only one player (Tyler Lockett – 7/67/1) has over six catches. New England should shadow him with Stephon Gilmore, who has underperformed in 2020 while missing three games. The trend says Hopkins should have a top game this week, but his matchup paints only a midtier game.

Keenan Allen, LAC (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,200)

Allen is well on his way to set career-highs in catches (130) and touchdowns (10) while being on pace for 1,335 yards. He extended his scoring streak to four games and upped his home resume to 55 catches for 601 yards and three touchdowns on 72 targets. In comparison, Allen only has 40 targets in the same number of games (5) on the road, leading to 26 catches for 234 yards and three touchdowns. He has two dominating games (13/132/1 and 16/145/1) that came in Los Angeles. The Bills are ninth defending wide receivers (125/1,538/9) with two teams gaining over 200 yards (LAR – 18/241/2 and SEA – 15/219/2). Buffalo struggled to defend three wide receivers (Cooper Kupp – 9/107/1, DK Metcalf – 7/108/1, and DeAndre Hopkins – 7/127/1). CB Tre’Davious White has been a liability in coverage this season while shadowing about half of his plays in multiple games. Allen runs excellent routes, but his road resume is ideal. High floor, but I expect him to fall short of filling his salary bucket.

Tyreek Hill, KC (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,600)

The Chiefs figured out how to get Hill the ball over their last two games (20/215/3) while receiving 32 combined targets. He scored in four straight contests (six touchdowns) and nine of his 10 starts (11 total TDs). Hill continues to trail his best season (87/1,630/13) in catches over 20 yards (10 – 27 in 2018) and over 40 yards (2 – 8 in 2018). Hill scored 91.9 fantasy points in his previous three starts, which was well above his first seven games (116.3 fantasy points). Tampa had no answer for the Rams’ wide receivers (27/314/2 on 35 targets) in Week 11, leading to a drop to 14th (159/1,878/11). The Bucs held their previous eight opponents to fewer than 190 yards receiving. Five receivers (D.J. Moore – 8/120, Robby Anderson – 9/109, Nelson Agholor – 5/107/1, Cooper Kupp – 11/145, and Robert Woods – 12/130/1) gained over 100 yards. CB Sean Murphy-Bunting can be beaten out of the slot, setting up another active day from Hill with impact upside.

Stefon Diggs, BUF (DK – $7,600/FD – $7,900)

In two favorable matchups in their previous two games, Diggs picked 18 catches for 211 yards and one touchdown. He has a floor of six catches in nine of his 10 starts while averaging 10.1 targets. His best showing came in Week 2 (8/153/1) on the road in Miami. Diggs is the sixth-highest scoring wide receiver (18.76 FPPG) with better success on the road (40/515/2). The Chargers play well vs. the wide receiver position (111/1,535/9 – 5th), with one team (TB – 16/245/2) gaining over 200 yards. Los Angeles allowed two impact games (Mike Evans – 7/122/1 and Emmanuel Sanders – 12/122) to wide receivers. CB Casey Hayward may shadow Diggs, but he’s made too many mistakes in big plays and touchdowns allowed despite allowing a high catch rate. Diggs has an against the grain feel, but he has the talent to surprise in this matchup.

Michael Thomas, NO (DK – $7,400/FD – $7,700)

With Taysom Hill starting last week and Thomas offering no value in his three games (3/17, 5/51, and 2/27) in 2020, fantasy owners were left with a tough decision on starting Thomas in Week 11. Hill threw the ball well (18-for-23 for 233 yards) while featuring his top receiver in the passing game (9/104 on 12 targets). The Broncos are league average vs. wide receivers (134/1,569/12) with three opponents (PIT – 21/250/2, NYJ – 18/208, and ATL – 15/208/3) gaining over 200 yards. Denver gave up over 100 yards to three wide receivers (Corey Davis – 7/101, Jamison Crowder – 7/104, and Olamide Zaccheaus – 4/103/1). CB Bryce Callahan rates well in coverage, but Thomas can beat any cornerback in the league with one-on-one coverage. Hill has to prove himself on the road before trusting Thomas in the daily games.

Calvin Ridley, ATL (DK – $7,100, FD – $8,100)

In a lousy offensive game by the Falcons, Ridley finished with five catches for 90 yards while playing through an ankle issue. His season started with two impact showings (9/130/2 and 7/109/2) followed up by four steady games (5/100, 8/136, 6/61/1, and 5/69/1). Atlanta had him on the field for 82 percent of their plays, his highest total since Week 3 (93 percent). Las Vegas showed risk vs. wide receivers in four (TB – 19/238/3, LAC – 16/243/1, DEN – 16/212/1, and KC – 21/179/1) of their last five games, leading to a side to 20th (135/1,777/10). The Raiders struggled in three contests against slot wide receivers (Scott Miller – 6/109/1, Keenan Allen – 9/103/1, and Tyreek Hill – 11/102/1). CB Trayvon Mullen allows plenty of yards and some damage in touchdowns. Ridley was limited again in practice this week, but he should be good to go on Sunday. If Julio Jones can’t play, Ridley will be the top-rated wide receiver in Week 11.

Adam Thielen, MIN (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,800)

After an impact game (8/123/2) against the Cowboys, Thielen landed on the Covid-19 list. He did have a negative test the following day, giving him an outside chance to play on Sunday. I have him rated as out mid-week, and he will be upgraded if his status is upgraded. Thielen has four touchdowns over the previous two weeks and 11 scores in 10 starts. His other three games (6/110/2, 8/114/1, and 9/80/2) of value were in the first five weeks of the season. The Panthers sit 10th defending wide receivers (149/1,717/9) after fading in Week 9 (KC – 15/195/3) and Week 10 (TB – 20/242/1). Carolina allowed over 100 yards to five wide receivers (Mike Evans – 7/104/1, Keenan Allen – 13/132/1, Calvin Ridley – 8/136, Julio Jones – 7/137, and Tyreek Hill – 9/113/2). Thielen has a very winnable matchup if he is cleared to play.

A.J. Brown, TEN (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,500)

Over his past seven games, Brown has seven touchdowns, with his only empty showing coming in Week 10 (1/12) against the Colts. He averages 7.4 targets while being on a path for 72 catches for 1,080 yards and 14 touchdowns with a full season of action. His top output (6/153/1) came at home vs. the Steelers. Indianapolis plays well defending wide receivers (115/1,559/9 – 7th), with three opponents (CIN – 20/285, DET – 10/202/2, and GB – 13/202/1) gaining over 200 yards. Allen Robinson (7/1001/1), Tee Higgins (6/125), Marvin Hall (4/113), and Davante Adams (7/106/1) had the best success against the Colts. CB Xavier Rhodes won the first battle while playing at the highest level of his career. Potential bounce back candidate while being a lower percentage own.

Julio Jones, ATL (DK – $6,500/FD – $8,000)

Jones left his matchup in Week 11 with a hamstring issue while being on the field for about 35 percent of the action. His status is up in the air against the Raiders after turning in a couple of limited practices. He played well from Week 6 to Week 9 (28/425/3) over four games, with his top showing in Week 6 (8/137/2). CB Damon Arnette struggled in two of his four starts after getting drafted 19th overall in 2020. He did miss five games with a thumb injury. Possible upside, but he will be tough to trust without a clean medical report.

Cooper Kupp, LAR (DK – $6,400/FD – $6,700)

Kupp played at a high-level in Week 11 (11/145), which is what fantasy owners hoped to see more often after drafting him as an upside WR2 over the summer. His other two impact games (9/107/1 and 11/110) also came on the road. Over four starts at home, he caught 20 passes for 202 yards and one touchdown on 25 targets. The 49ers held him to three catches for 11 yards in Week 6. San Francisco still ranks favorably against wide receivers (120/1,461/12) despite getting drilled by Seattle (19/212/3) and Green Bay (13/229/3) in Week 8 and 9. Kupp will overmatch CB Jamar Taylor out of the slot. I expect a touchdown, but his follow-through in catches and yards are tied to San Francisco putting up a fight on the scoreboard.

Justin Jefferson, MIN (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,000)

Despite three catches or fewer in six of his 10 starts, Jefferson is the 15th highest scoring wide receiver (15.58 FPPG) thanks to a high catch rate (76.3) and 18.8 yards per catch. He played well over the past two weeks (8/135 and 3/86/1) while also delivering two impact games (7/175/1 and 9/166/2) at home. Jefferson doesn’t have a touchdown on the road. CB Rasul Douglas allows short yards per catch with only one touchdown. If Adam Thielen doesn’t suit, Jefferson should have the best opportunity of his career.

DJ Moore, CAR (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,300)

Moore matched up well with the Lions’ defense in Week 11, leading to his best output (7/148) of the year. The Panthers use him in a different role in 2020, resulting in a significant jump in his yards per catch (18.8 – 13.5 in 2019). At the same time, his opportunity (7.3 targets) fell by 23.8 percent (nine targets per game in 2019). Moore scored over 19.00 fantasy points in five of his 11 starts, with his best game (4/93/2) coming in Week 7. Minnesota allows the fourth-most fantasy points (43.07 – 138/1,780/17) defending wide receivers with the Packers (22/315/4) and Atlanta (19/268/3) delivered impact games. Four wide receivers (Davante Adams – 14/156/2, Kalif Raymond – 3/118, Julio Jones – 8/1372, and Will Fuller – 6/108/1) gaining over 100 yards. Moore is on the rise, and his matchup paints an upside picture. Unfortunately, Carolina has a three-way split at wide receiver, which can lead to inconsistent targets.

Robby Anderson, CAR (DK – $6,100/FD – $6,400)

The scoreless streak for Anderson now stands at 10 games. Over the past four games, he gained only 7.1 yards per catch with 25 catches for 178 yards on nine targets per game. His season started with four productive starts (6/114/1, 9/109, 8/99, and 8/112) over five weeks. CB Cameron Dantzler has been a liability in coverage. Anderson will score this week, and he should be the Panthers’ top wide receiver in this matchup.

Mike Evans, TB (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,100)

Evans has been an excellent fit for touchdowns (9) for Tom Brady, but he’s gained fewer than 65 yards in nine of his 11 games. His two impact outings (7/104/1 and 7/122/1) both came over the first four weeks. He averages only 6.5 targets per game, which is well below his last five seasons (9.5). Evans is on pace for 65 catches for 812 yards and 13 touchdowns and the lowest output of his career. Kansas City has the fourth-best defense vs. the wide receiver position (115/1,392/8), with three wide receivers (Will Fuller 8/112, Henry Ruggs 2/118/1, Curtis Samuel 9/105/1) gaining over 100 yards. CB Bashaud Breeland likes to play up close in press coverage, which has worked well in his time with the Chiefs. His downside can come in the deep passing game, an area Tom Brady has struggled with recently. Kansas City will score, and Tampa will have to throw the ball to win. Evans is reasonably priced, with game flow being his friend.

Chris Godwin, TB (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,400)

Godwin hasn’t gained over 100 yards in any of his seven starts, putting him on pace for 94 catches for 1,063 yards and six touchdowns if he played 16 games. His rhythm with Tom Brady has been high based on his catch rate (80.4). Godwin shined in Week 7 (9/88/1) with a step up in play over the past two weeks (6/92 and 7/53/1). The Chiefs will try to use S Tyrann Mathieu in coverage, which is favorable for Godwin. Possibly the best game of the season.

Devante Parker, MIA (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,500)

Parker looked better in his last matchup (6/61/1) while receiving the second-most targets (9) on the year. Tua Tagovailoa continues to make plays in the passing game (6.2 yards per pass attempt), but he hasn’t thrown an interception. Tagovailoa was hooked last week, and he is also battling a thumb injury on his throwing hand. A change to Ryan Fitzpatrick would be a win for Parker’s value. In Week 6, the Jets held him to three catches for 35 yards on eight targets. New York has been run over by wide receivers over the previous three games (KC – 18/279/4, NE – 18/233, and LAC – 22/275/2). Six receivers (Tim Patrick – 6/113/1, DeAndre Hopkins – 6/131/1, Cole Beasley – 11/112, Tyreek Hill – 4/98/2, Jakobi Meyers – 12/169, and Keenan Allen – 16/145/1) posted impact games. The Jets rank 26th vs. wide receivers (156/2,021/11). I want to believe in Parker, but he needs better quarterback play.

Christian Kirk, ARI (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,100)

After three productive games (2/86/2, 5/37/2, and 5/123/1), Kirk lost momentum in his past two starts (4/27 and 4/50 on 12 combined targets). Over his last six games, he has 25 catches for 401 yards and five touchdowns while averaging 16.0 yards per catch. CB J.C. Jackson allows a low catch rate, but he can be beaten in the deep passing while offering playmaking ability. Only a coin toss, but Kirk is priced above his opportunity (5.8 targets).

Robert Woods, LAR (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,800)

Woods picked up 46 catches for 554 yards and six touchdowns over his previous eight games. He struggled in three games (14/119) at home while shining in his five games (32/435/6) on the road. Woods dominated in Week 11 (12/130/1) with season-high 15 targets. He ranks 10th in wide receiving scoring (16.60 FPPG) with two other playable games (21.40 and 28.40 fantasy points). San Francisco held him to four catches for 40 yards and one touchdown. CB Emmanuel Moseley ranks poorly in coverage while allowing multiple touchdowns. Woods is in the mix at this level at DraftKings.

Antonio Brown, TB (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,500)

Over the past two games, Brown has been active in targets (21), which led to two steady results (7/69 and 8/57). His shortfall out of the gate is 8.7 yards per catch while gaining over 20 yards only once. Brown continues to work as the WR3 while being on the field for 62 percent of the Bucs plays in Week 11. His matchup with CB Charvarius Ward is below par, but Brown still has the talent to beat one-on-one coverage. Improving with a chance to be a difference-maker in this game.

Cole Beasley, BUF (DK – $5,500/FD – $5,400)

Beasley has been a road warrior over his past two road games (11/112 and 11/109/1) while receiving a combined 25 targets. Over his other five contests over the previous seven weeks, he only had 18 catches for 193 yards and two touchdowns. Beasley is on pace for the best season of his career (88/1,027/5). CB Tevaughn Campbell doesn’t have the resume to hold wide receivers to minimum production.

Jamison Crowder, NYJ (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,300)

Crowder lost his way over the past two starts (2/26/1 and 1/16) with a combined six targets. New York had him on the field for 93 percent of their plays in Week 11. Miami held him to seven catches for 48 yards in their first matchup, which came after three impact games (7/115/1, 7/104, and 8/116/1). Miami worked their way to 17th in wide receiver defense (134/1,843/8) with struggles in four games (BUF – 20/358/3, SEA – 11/272/1, LAR – 24/262/1, and ARI – 14/217/1). Five wide receivers (Stefon Diggs – 8/153/1, DK Metcalf – 4/106, Cooper Kupp – 11/110, Christian Kirk – 5/123/1, and Tim Patrick – 5/119) gained over 100 yards against the Dolphins. Look for Crowder to get back on his high volume pass-catching ways while owning an edge over CB Nik Needham.

Jakobi Meyers, NE (DK – $5,300/FD – $5,800)

Meyers was a high percentage own in Week 11 at DraftKings, but he failed to meet expectations (3/38). He’s still looking for his first touchdown while offering one impact game (12/169) over the past five weeks. His catch rate (75.0) is elite while picking up 30 catches for 384 yards on 40 targets over five starts. Arizona ranks 26th in wide receiver defense (157/1,816/11). The Cardinals gave up over 100 yards to four wide receivers (Terry McLaurin – 7/125/1, Jamison Crowder – 8/116/1, Tyler Lockett – 15/200/3, and Cole Beasley – 11/109/1). CB Byron Murphy tends to hold receivers to short yards per catch with minimal damage in touchdowns. More of a coin toss, but New England offers minimal upside in passing touchdowns.

Sterling Shepard, NYG (DK – $5,100/FD – $5,400)

Over the last four games, Shepard averaged eight targets per game with a floor of six catches. He caught 26 passes for 219 yards and a touchdown over this stretch while gaining only 8.4 yards per catch. Shepard was limited in practice this week with toe and hip issues. Cincinnati has two disaster outings (JAC – 20/271/2 and PIT – 21/283/4), pushing them to 23rd vs. wide receivers (134/1,758/14). CB LeShaun Sims gives up big plays, touchdowns, and a high catch rate, which points to Shepard potentially posting an impact game.

Curtis Samuel, CAR (DK – $5,100/FD – $5,900)

The Panthers gave Samuel a bump in chances in four (17.30, 21.40, 26.80, and 21.40 fantasy points) of his previous five games thanks to five touchdowns. Carolina gave him 41 touches over this span, lifting him to 30th in wide receiver scoring (12.27 FPPG). CB Jeff Gladney has been one of the worst players in the NFL in coverage despite owning a 2020 first-round pedigree. The beat goes on while not drawing a high level of interest in the daily games.

Michael Pittman, IND (DK – $5,000/FD – $5,700)

The Colts gave Pittman starting snaps over the past two games, which led to back-to-back playable games (7/122 and 3/66/1) in the season-long contests. His success in Week 11 came on only three targets, highlighted by a 45-yard touchdown. Tennessee struggled to defend him two weeks ago (19.20 fantasy points) while ranking 26th in wide receiver defense (174/1,924/10), with six teams gaining over 200 yards, but they haven’t allowed a touchdown over the last three weeks. I like his direction, and his size offers scoring upside in the red zone.

Tyler Boyd, CIN (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,900)

The loss of Joe Burrow will hurt the Bengals’ wide receivers’ playability going forward in 2020. Over the previous four games, Boyd has a floor of six catches, leading to 32 catches for 303 yards and two touchdowns. His best success came in Week 3 (10/125) and Week 7 (11/101/1). The Giants are just below the league average vs. wide receivers (140/1,722/9), with three teams (DAL – 18/242, PHI – 15/216/1, and WAS – 14/259/1) gaining over 200 yards. More of the gamble due to the dropdown at quarterback.

Mike Williams, LAC (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,100)

Williams hit on a 39-yard touchdown last week, but he still fell short of filling his salary bucket. Over the previous six weeks, Williams played well in four contests (5/109/2, 5/99/1, 5/81, and 4/72/1). He averages 5.8 targets while gaining 17.3 yards per catch. CB Levi Wallace will struggle with size and speed, which is what Williams offers. If the Bills score, his production may fall in an impactful range.

Corey Davis, TEN (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,000)

The Ravens struggled to cover Davis in Week 11 (5/113), which gave him six games with five catches or more. He gained over 100 yards in two other contests (7/101 and 8/128/1). His top games all came on the road (25/411/1). The Colts held him to five catches for 67 yards in Week 10. CB Rock Ya-Sin hasn’t allowed a touchdown this year despite grading poorly in coverage. The Titans want to run the ball, but they do have the talent to win in the passing game if forced to throw even in a below-par matchup.

Nelson Agholor, LV (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,200)

After three empty games (0/0, 2/55/1, and 1/8 on nine combined targets), Agholor played well against the Chiefs (6/88/1) while matching his season-high in targets (9). He has a touchdown in five of his previous seven starts while posting one other impact game (5/107/1). Over the last seven weeks, he averaged only 4.7 targets. Atlanta allows the third-most fantasy points (43.63 – 144/2,108/10) to wide receivers, with eight different teams gaining over 200 yards. Eight wide receivers (CeeDee Lamb – 6/100, Amari Cooper – 6/100, Allen Robinson – 10/123/1, Robby Anderson – 8/112, Justin Jefferson – 9/166/2, Kenny Golladay – 6/114, Jerry Jeudy – 7/125/1, and Michael Thomas – 9/104) gained over 100 yards against the Falcons. One of the Raiders’ receivers should come in this matchup. A boom-or-bust player with a positive matchup.

Darius Slayton, NYG (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,900)

Slayton has more misses than hits over 10 games of action this season. He shined in Week 1 (6/102/2) while also playing well in Week 5 (8/129). Over his other eight contests, Slayton had three catches or fewer in six weeks. He showed an uptick in Week 10 (5/93). CB William Jackson can be beaten in the deep passing game with some damage in touchdowns. Worth a flier in a Giants’ stack with Daniel Jones.

Tee Higgins, CIN (DK – $4,700/FD – $6,200)

Last week, the loss of Joe Burrow led to Higgins posting his shortest game (3/26) despite receiving a season-high 10 targets. He caught 37 passes for 568 yards and four touchdowns over his previous seven games, with four productive weeks (5/40/2, 6/125, 5/71/1, and 7/115/1). CB Isaac Yiadom has risk in the deep passing game, but Brandon Allen may not have the talent to deliver winning plays. 

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