Joe Biden goes into the second and final televised debate in an enviable position. The polls show him running ahead of Donald Trump; his campaign is awash in money for a final advertising push; and, according to some surveys, his favorability ratings are higher than they were when he won the Democratic nomination earlier this year. Take the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. In April, it found that thirty-seven per cent of respondents had a positive opinion of Biden and forty-one per cent had a negative opinion—a net rating of negative four. In a poll taken last week, those numbers had flipped. Forty-three per cent of respondents said they viewed Biden positively and forty-two per cent said they viewed him negatively—a net rating of positive one.
At first glance, this five-point shift may not seem like a big deal. It is. For many months now, the Trump campaign has been trying to “define” Biden, which is the political consultant’s term for pouring buckets of slime over the opposing candidate and hoping that some of it sticks. Often, it does, and 2016 was one of those elections. On the basis of his success in demonizing Hillary Clinton, Trump had reason to hope that going negative would work for him again in 2020. Judging by the polls, it hasn’t.
Why not? Part of the reason is that many of the charges Trump has lobbed at Biden are flimsy and could more effectively be thrown at him. Corrupt Washington insider? Let me introduce you to the emoluments clause of the Constitution. Burdened by a family member who seems determined to cash in on his political position? According to one count, the Chinese government has awarded forty-one trademarks to businesses associated with Ivanka Trump. A puppet of extremists? The feed-the-rich Trump-G.O.P. tax cut of 2017 was the most radically regressive piece of legislation that Congress has passed in many years. And who could forget that Trump defended the right-wing extremists in Charlottesville, and also Kyle Rittenhouse, the Illinois teen-ager who allegedly shot and killed two demonstrators in Kenosha, Wisconsin?
Compared with Trump and the rampant cronyism that his Administration has unleashed, virtually any other candidate would look lily-white. But, in explaining why Biden is in such a strong position this close to the election, you can’t attribute everything to Trump. Up to this point, the former Vice-President and his political advisers have run a savvy and disciplined campaign.
While Trump is out there every day ranting away, the Biden campaign is so tightly focussed that it is reminiscent of one of Ronald Reagan’s campaigns. The candidate’s public appearances are carefully rationed. His messaging is straightforward and consistent: Trump’s disastrous handling of the pandemic shows he’s not fit to be President, and there is a better, less divisive option available. Biden’s ads, which are blanketing the airwaves in the battleground states, ram this message home constantly.
Everything Team Biden does is intended to emphasize the contrast between the two candidates, avoid gaffes or diversions, and make sure the election remains primarily a referendum on Trump. Within the confines of this tightly scripted campaign, though, Biden has managed to exhibit his two big political strengths: his unthreatening image and his palpable humanity.
Biden’s policy platform, which would raise taxes on the rich to finance a range of programs targeted at ordinary Americans, is in many respects commendably progressive. But he’s also made clear that he won’t ban fracking, defund the police, or levy new taxes on any household earning less than four hundred thousand dollars a year. His empathy comes across whenever he interacts with ordinary voters, as he did very effectively at last week’s CNN town hall. But this goes beyond television events. One of the most telling moments of the campaign came when, on hearing that Trump and his wife had contracted COVID-19, Biden wished the First Couple well and took down his attack ads. Even the alleged contents of Hunter Biden’s hard drive, which the New York Post says it obtained from Rudy Giuliani, have illuminated Biden’s humanity. “Good morning my beautiful son. I miss you and love you, Dad,” he wrote in a February 2019 message to the troubled Hunter, who was then languishing in a drug rehab center.
Of course, Biden’s campaign hasn’t been without blemishes. In all probability, his performance in Thursday’s debate won’t be either. At the first debate in Cleveland three weeks ago, there were moments when he looked shaky and spoke in non sequiturs. This was hardly surprising, however, given Trump’s constant interruptions, which were designed to knock him off his stride. Over all, though, Biden did what he needed to do: keep his cool and make his points. If only he could learn to stop speaking once he’s made them, his supporters would feel less nervous as they tune in for the final debate.
Even if Biden does stumble a bit, though, it won’t necessarily upend the race. For all but confirmed members of MAGA nation, the Trump Presidency has been a huge downer: at once enervating, embarrassing, and depressing. After nearly four years of it, there’s a great yearning for something more uplifting, something that will enable Americans to feel better about their country and themselves. For Democrats, independents, and even some Republicans, Biden is now the vehicle for this yearning. That was evident in the stunning fund-raising figures that his campaign reported for September; in the ratings for his CNN town hall, which were higher than Trump’s ratings on the NBC networks; and in the unprecedented number of people, disproportionately registered Democrats, who have already voted.
No one would say Biden is the most dynamic of candidates. But, with less than two weeks to go until November 3rd, his candidacy seems to offer a way out of the morass. For that, many Americans will forgive him a great deal—and do all they can to carry him across the finish line.
