Throughout 2020 and into 2021, our Senior Gambling Analyst and Vegas Insider- Frankie Taddeo – has shared his horse racing handicapping formula, which has correctly predicted the following winners at SI Gambling:
Travers Stakes – Exacta (8/1), Trifecta (36/1)
Blue Grass Stakes – Exacta (12/1), Trifecta (60/1), and Superfecta (443/1)
Frizette Stakes – Exacta Cold
Desi Arnaz Stakes – Exacta (31/1)
Ontario Derby – Trifecta (72/1)
Tropical Turf Stakes – Trifecta (37/1) – 2021*
Rebel Stakes – Concert Tour – Winner
Kentucky Derby – Medina Spirit (13/1) & Exacta (251/1)
It is always a great feeling when your horse racing formula correctly predicts a race from the opening break to the final wire. Last week, all readers of Sports Illustrated were privy to my vision of Medina Spirit (13/1) taking the field wire-to-wire and making trainer Bob Baffert a repeat winner in the Run for the Roses.
After Medina Spirit ($26.20) won Kentucky Derby 147, all SI PRO members were also treated to hitting the $2 exacta ($503) with Mandaloun. My formula has now correctly picked the winner and exacta in 7 of the last 11 Kentucky Derby’s while cashing trifecta tickets in 6 of the last 14 runnings of the prestigious race. Before we can get to next week’s Preakness Stakes, let’s take a look at an attractive stakes race on the slate this weekend.
On Saturday, SI Gambling’s “Race of the Week” takes us to racing action from Belmont Park. Among the 11 races on the card is the $700,000 Man o’ War Stakes, which has drawn a talented field of 8. The renowned race will feature elite turf horses who will run at an extended distance of 1 3/8 miles.
This race is highly competitive, but the numbers from my formula are jumping off the page that this should be a three-horse race. Morning line favorite Sovereign (8/5) for Chad Brown will be shipping overseas from Ireland to make his US debut. Sovereign, who last raced in November, has failed to find the winner’s circle in five consecutive races, but thanks to his connections, it will likely be a short price come post-time.
The second choice is Christophe Clement’s Gufo (2/1), who has won five of eight career races while hitting the board in all eight career starts. Gufo, according to my formula, rates as the horse to beat in this turf test of endurance race.
Who will cross the finish line first? Who rates as my top longshot? Let’s take a look at the odds and dive deeper.
Man o’ War Stakes (G1)
- Racetrack: Belmont Park
- Date: Saturday, May 8, 2021
- Purse: $700,000
- Distance: 1 ⅜ M, Dirt
- Race: 10
- Post Time: 5:44 pm EST / 2:44 pm PST
NOTE: Horses listed by post number, name, and odds
#8 Gufo (2/1) – The formula lands on Clement’s entry, who will be looking to remain perfect at Belmont Park after winning the Belmont Derby Invitational back on the lawn last October. The one thing that concerns me is that Gufo will be spotting the field four to six pounds by carrying the maximum of 124 pounds. Pick
#1 Sovereign (6/1) – Chad Brown’s entry, who has not raced since November, will be making his US debut on Saturday. Although he has not crossed the wire first in five straight, you can be sure that top jockey Irad Ortiz will have Sovereign in prime position from the opening break. He has hit the board in three of his last five races, and from his recent workouts, my formula says that he will add to that total in the Man o’ War stakes. Contender
#7 Field Pass (6/1) – This son of Lemon Drop Kid for trainer Michael Maker has hit the board in 11 of 17 career races. He finished fourth in his prep race last month at Keeneland after going four-wide before fading in the stretch. Field Pass is my top longshot who I suggest using him on all tickets. Top Longshot
Formula Rankings
- #8 Gufo
- #1 Sovereign
- #7 Field Pass
- #3 Ziyad
- #2 Moon over Miami
- #5 Channel Cat
- #6 Shamrocket
- #4 So High
Betting Breakdown
According to the formula this race will likely play out close to form and I will play it accordingly. I will use the son of Declaration of War – #8 Gufo (2/1) predominantly with #1 Sovereign (8/5) and #7 Field Pass (6/1).
TOP Exacta Box: 8-1-7
TOP Trifecta Part-Wheel: 8 with 1,7 with 1,2,3,5,7
SPREAD Trifecta Part-Wheel: 1,7,8 with 1,7,8 with 1,2,3,5,7,8
All wagers display ticket cost. All bettors should adjust wager amounts based upon bankroll.
