Opportunity matters more than talent in fantasy football, but not all touches are created equal. We have to go beyond just “carries” to analyze how a player is being involved, especially at running back where players are used in all kinds of ways. “High-Value RB Touches & Game Script” will break down which running backs are being used optimally and which running backs are only seeing low-value touches.
The chart below shows how many PPR points a touch is worth depending on how far away a player is from the end zone and if it was a target or carry. Targets (1.63 PPR points on average) are worth more than carries (0.62) in fantasy football by a full PPR point on average. We already knew that, but what about inside the red zone?
Targets and carries are basically worth the same from 99 yards away all the way up to the red zone. Then their value begins to sky-rocket, pushing a lot of the value in touches to within 10 yards of the goal-line. I typically ignore red zone touches and pay more attention to inside-the-10 touches because they’re worth 1.95 PPR points on average compared to 0.67 PPR points for touches between 11-20 yards from the end zone.
High Value RB Touches
over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 high value touches per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. "High Value %" is the percentage of opportunities that are high value touches. The higher, the better for all categories." data-reactid="33">As shown earlier, targets and opportunities near the goal-line are by far the most valuable types of touches for fantasy RBs. I’ve combined them to create “High Value Touches”, which are targets plus inside-the-10 yard line touches. The players in the table are sorted by high value touches per game over the last four weeks (min. three carries per game and 0.1 high value touches per game). “Inside-10” are targets plus carries within 10 yards of the end zone over the last four weeks. “Opps” are opportunities, which are targets plus carries. “High Value %” is the percentage of opportunities that are high value touches. The higher, the better for all categories.
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Game-Script Touch Shares
Some players get the ball more when their team is leading (think LeGarrette Blount), while others get the ball more when their team is trailing (think James White). This table shows each player’s touch share — the percentage of a team’s plays that went to a player — while playing in neutral game script (in-game winning percentage between 34-66%), while trailing (0-33%), and while leading (67-100%). Please note that I removed players who have missed a game within the last four weeks. All touch shares are from over the last four weeks. Beware of small samples when a team has few plays within a game script.
Week 6 RB Touches By Down
Another way to look at how running backs are used is by separating third-down touches from first- or second-down touches (“Early Downs”). Running backs with a percentage of third-down touches are typically pass-catching specialists. In a perfect world, running backs would have high touch totals in both situations. Those are shown below, as well as “Pass Situation Targets”. The goal with this metric is to find the running backs who play on obvious passing downs because we want bankable targets from our fantasy running backs. “Pass Situation Targets” include targets during two-minute drills, targets on 3rd- or 4th-and-long, or targets while clearly trailing (all while removing garbage time). If that’s too much to think about, it’s essentially the type of plays where you’re screaming at the TV because Giovani Bernard is playing over Joe Mixon. We’ve all been there.
Week 6 Garbage Time Eaters
Percentage of a player’s touches that came when @nflfastR’s in-game winning percentage was less than 10% or greater than 90%. This is when backups enter the game, but it’s not always a bad thing. Use your judgement. Minimum four touches and 50% “Garbage Rate”.
The Fantasy Usage Model: Week 6
Part 1: High-Value RB Touches & Game Script (Monday)
Part 2: Targets Aren’t Created Equal (Monday)
Part 3: Air Yards Report (Monday)
Part 4: Fantasy Usage Model Notes (Tuesday)
My Twitter: @HaydenWinks
