Decades ago, when Miami Dolphins postseason berths seemed more like a right rather than a privilege hard earned, it made sense around mid-November to look ahead to the season’s final weeks and figure out how the division race might play out based on the remaining schedule.
Because it was once about the Buffalo Bills and Dolphins for the AFC East.
And then it was about the New England Patriots and the Dolphins for the AFC East.
And late-season strength of schedule and common opponents mattered.
Well, the Dolphins are back in the hunt after some time out of the picture but I still recall how this is done. So I spent part of Thursday dusting off my old magnifying glass to take a close look at the remaining schedule for the three teams still vying for the AFC East title.
(I believe this is a playoff relevance exercise so here we go.)
Like-place finishers
One thing I can tell you immediately is the Dolphins should be grateful they were terrible in 2019 because it has been a gift that keeps on giving in 2020.
The latest way that forgettable 5-11 season is still paying dividends for Miami is found in their schedule versus conference opponents.
AFC East teams this year are playing every opponent in the NFC West and AFC West, and one opponent each from the AFC South and AFC North.
It’s in those two games against team from the AFC South and AFC North that the Dolphins have a big advantage now because they were so bad last year.
Because the Dolphins, last in the AFC East in 2019, play the last-place teams in the AFC North and AFC South from a year ago.
So the Dolphins this year have already played the Jacksonville Jaguars, who finished last in the AFC South, and will play the Cincinnati Bengals, who finished last in the AFC North. Those two teams continue to be bad.
The Buffalo Bills, second in the AFC East last year, play against the second-place teams from the North and South based on their second-place finish last year. So Buffalo has the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans. Tennessee continues to be solid while the Steelers are the NFL’s only unbeaten team.
The Patriots, who won the AFC East last season, play the two division winners from the North and South last year — so the Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans.
Are you getting the picture why the Dolphins are at an advantage based on their 2019 finish?
The Bengals (2-6-1) and Jaguars (1-8) meet the Dolphins with a combined 3-14-1 record. The Dolphins, by the way, already beat Jacksonville and will play Cincinnati next month.
The Steelers (9-0) and Titans (6-3) meet the Bills with a combined record of 15-3. The Bills already lost to the Titans and will play the Steelers next month.
The Ravens (6-3) and Texans (2-7) meet the Patriots with a combined record of 8-10. The Patriots already beat the Ravens and will play the Texans on Sunday.
Advantage: Dolphins.
Remaining strength of schedule:
The Bills remaining opponents own a 28-27 record.
The Dolphins remaining opponents own a 30-33 record.
The Patriots remaining opponents own a 29-35 record.
Advantage: Patriots.
Home and road remaining
The Dolphins, Patriots and Bills all have four road games remaining.
The Dolphins and Patriots have three home games remaining while the Bills have two remaining home games.
Advantage: Not the Bills.
AFC East vs. NFC West
The Dolphins are done playing their NFC West schedule and they dominated. Miami finished 3-1 against the very good NFC West. Miami’s only loss came to Seattle.
The Patriots are 0-2 so far against the NFC West and must play Arizona at home and at the Los Angeles Rams.
The Bills are 2-1 against the NFC West and must play at San Francisco.
Advantage: Dolphins.
AFC East vs. AFC West
The Dolphins are 1-0 versus the AFC West, with a victory over the Los Angeles Chargers days ago. Miami must play at Denver on Sunday, at Las Vegas and will be at home against Kansas City.
The Bills are 1-1 against the AFC West, with a victory over the Raiders and a loss to the Chiefs. They have road games at the Chargers and Broncos — the two weakest teams in the division — remaining.
The Patriots are 1-2 against the AFC West, with a victory over the Raiders and losses to Kansas City and Denver. New England must still play at the Chargers.
Advantage: The Bills because they’re at .500 against the two better teams in the division and already took their whipping from K.C., while the other two teams still must face the defending Super Bowl champions.
Head to Head
The Bills are 4-0 within the division and that’s a huge advantage, even though two of those wins came against the winless New York Jets.
The Patriots are 2-1 within the division and finish their season with three consecutive games against their three division rivals.
The Dolphins are 1-2 within the division, which is the reason they’re not leading the division. Miami has its three remaining division games at the Jets, home against New England and at the Bills in the regular-season finale.
Advantage: Buffalo.
Overall
If you give the Dolphins the advantage for playing the weaker AFC North and AFC South teams, the advantage for performing best versus the NFC West, and a half share of the advantage with New England on home and road remaining, that gives Miami 2 1/2 advantages.
The Bills have the advantage of having the best head-to-head record in the AFC East and the advantage of having already played the two toughest AFC West teams. So 2 advantages.
The Patriots gets the advantage of having the easiest remaining schedule and splitting with Miami the remaining home and road games advantage. So 1 1/2 advantages.
So…
Overall advantage: Miami.
