In the final week of the 2014 season, TCU was ranked No. 3 by the College Football Playoff selection committee, hammered Iowa State 55-3 and finished 11-1.
The next day they dropped three spots in the rankings and out of the playoffs. How? Well, the committee decided to like someone else more. Trying to preemptively fight that logic, a TCU fan made a sign before the Iowa State game.
“The Titanic passed the eye test too.”
Clever. Except, in this case, the Titanic proved to be Ohio State, which leaped past the Frogs and didn’t just pass the eye test, but every other test as well. It won the playoff. The Buckeyes proved the subjective correct.
That was the moment that all the hype about the selection committee’s “rules,” “procedures” and “analytics” — and even meeting in person each week and ranking the teams — was exposed as little more than a dog-and-pony show.
The eye test is all that mattered then. It is all that matters now.
Back in 2014, the explanation was that TCU lacked a “13th data point” because NCAA rules at the time prohibited leagues with just 10 teams — such as the Big 12 — from staging a league championship game. So the committee talked up 12-1 Ohio State playing one more game, although the teams had the same number of Power Five victories.
This Sunday, Ohio State might get into the playoff without even a “7th data point.”
This isn’t an argument against Ohio State. In fact, in my opinion, if the Buckeyes beat Northwestern Saturday and improve to 6-0, they are one of the four best teams in the country. Their inclusion will make the playoff more exciting and competitive.
But that’s just an opinion and not one backed up by too many metrics. Ohio State has only played five games, and just one against a team with a winning record (a seven-point victory over Indiana, which itself hasn’t defeated anyone with a winning record).
As such, while Ohio State might be the correct choice, it would also be an outrageous example of this being nothing more than a wholly subjective system that just reverse engineers a justification.
The committee should just say it likes Ohio State’s famous brand, track record of excellence and number of guys rated highly in NFL mock drafts so much that the Buckeyes could have played two games and gotten in.
Playing half a season — and enjoying an off week before four of those six games as the OSU did — is not a season. It’s like letting someone compete in the Masters from the forward tees. Yes, you still have to hit some putts, but seriously…
The Big Ten chose to stage an abbreviated, late-starting season. No one else made them. Other leagues have proven that a near full slate of games can be played during COVID. The key was building in lots of open weekends for schedule flexibility.
The SEC is expected to play 70 of its 71 scheduled games this year. The league title game Saturday will be the 11th for both Alabama (10-0) and Florida (8-2).
While that isn’t the normal 13-game maximum, since the SEC played a conference-only schedule, this year is likely more challenging and a bigger grind than usual, when a few Citadels and Middle Tennessees offer respite.
The Crimson Tide’s potential 11 SEC victories in a single season would be two more than any team in conference history. Florida’s potential nine SEC victories would tie for the record. Notre Dame (10-0) and Clemson (9-1) are in similar situations in the ACC on Saturday.
Or what about Texas A&M, which could finish the year 8-1, meaning eight SEC victories.
Yet six with plenty of rest in the Big Ten is better?
“I guess probably the best thing to do would’ve been play less games, because you seem to get rewarded this year for not playing,” Florida coach Dan Mullen said.
Mullen’s comments came after the Gators lost Saturday as heavy favorites to LSU — a result that required a shoe-throwing penalty and a 57-yard game-winning kick for the Tigers. It was the kind of absurdity that happens in college football.
“I think any time you step in between the lines, the game of football, there’s a lot that can happen — a lot,” Clemson coach Dabo Swinney said on “The Rich Eisen Show” last week. “I mean, heck — in 2017, we lost to a four-win Syracuse team and still went to the playoffs. So anything can happen. Guys can get hurt.”
Ohio State knows this. Its playoff hopes have vanished in recent years due to unexpected losses to Iowa and Purdue.
There is also a thing called “math,” which the committee claims to care a great deal about — 13 is greater than 12, remember?
If there was ever a year where a non-Power Five school would get a boost, it’s this one. Maybe it would be a pandemic loophole, but so what? Since only a few conferences played non-conference opponents, it’s nearly impossible to compare resumes — we’re basically saying that beating Penn State matters because beating Penn State has mattered in the past.
The two best non-conference victories this season belong to Sun Belt teams — Coastal Carolina over BYU and Louisiana over Iowa State (by 17 in Ames, no less). Coastal also won at Kansas and Sun Belt member Arkansas State beat Kansas State on the road.
Coastal (11-0) handed Louisiana (9-1) its only loss, by three, earlier in the season and the two teams have a rematch in the league title game.
While history and the “eye test” may make it difficult to claim Coastal could be one of the four best teams in the country, that’s why resumes were supposed to matter. In the vacuum of this single season (which is how it’s supposed to work), a 12-0 Coastal Carolina would have a very impressive case.
Instead, Coastal is ranked 13th, Louisiana is 19th … and two-loss Iowa State is somehow No. 7.
And 5-0 Ohio State is ranked fourth. But 5-0 USC of the Pac-12 is 15th.
Win games. Lose games. Hell, don’t even play the games. None of it really matters.
The committee is going to pick the teams they like the best no matter what. Maybe the “eye test” gets you the Titanic or maybe it gets you the 2014 Buckeyes.
That’s fine. It’s a thankless and challenging job, this year more than ever. Ohio State is likely to represent well. The playoff should be fun.
Let’s just stop pretending “data points” and “proprietary analytics” and “body of work” are real things though.
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