Following the week off for Thanksgiving, the PGA Tour is back for one last tournament to wrap up the 2020 season.
The season finishes in Mexico at El Camaleon Golf Club. This event dates back to 2013 and this year it brings a much stronger field than normal. We can thank COVID for very few things but stronger fields is one of them.
The favorites this week are no surprise. We have Justin Thomas at +650 coming in as the clear cut favorite and next in line at more than double the odds is Brooks Koepka at +1400. Those two heavy hitters are followed up by DFS darlings Harris English at +1600 and Tony Finau at +1800.
Value is easy to find this week in this mid range tier. We start the fun with Abraham Ancer at +2000, Daniel Berger at +2200, and super hot golfer Russell Henley also at +2200.
Will any of these top guys make our Best Bets? I know one that definitely will, and it might surprise you.
The Breakdown: Mayakoba Golf Classic
Dates: December 3rd-6th
Course: El Camaleon Golf Club
Par: 71
Yardage: 7,100+
Greens: Paspalum
Let’s take a look at the current odds from DK Sportsbook, as well as the team’s best bets and more.
Mayakoba Golf Classic Predictions and Best Bets
Alex White, SI Gambling and DFS Analyst @coachwhitedfs
***Always hedge your outright bets with a top 5, top 10, or top 20 bet.***
BEST BET TO WIN
Tony Finau +1800
Finau has had a mixed bag of results at the Mayakoba. He has been cut twice with a T16 in his 2018 appearance. The difference in his 2018 finish was the weather. In his two missed cuts at this event the wind has played a huge role. This year the weather will play into Finau’s hands. It will be wet with low winds. The driver will give him a clear advantage off the tee this week with little to no rollout on the fairways.
He crushes my statistical model ranking first overall. My key stats this week are Par 4 (400-450), proximity from 200 yards plus, and Birdie or better percentage. Finau ranks 25th, 1st, and 13th with a myriad of other supporting stats. He has all the tools, the weather is in his favor, and it’s the final event of the 2020 season. Still time for the win we have all been waiting for.
BEST VALUE PLAY
Carlos Ortiz +5000
Fresh off a win and he still gets zero respect. I know how uncommon back to back wins are but let’s not forget just last season Brendon Todd did it. Not to mention last season Ortiz took home 2nd place here at the Mayakoba. I saw exactly why when looking at my statistical model. He ranks high in all three of my key stats this week. Don’t be afraid to go right back to the well on this play. If you can’t stomach him winning his top 10 odds are solid at +500.
FAVORITE TOP 10 BET
Harold Varner III +550
HV3 is playing some of his best golf in the past 8 months. You just have to pinpoint the weeks he shows up compared to the alternative, when he misses the cut. In his last ten tournaments he has five missed cuts. For those of you that don’t follow golf. That’s not good. However, when he makes the cut he has finished no worse than 29th, with a top ten and a couple top 15’s mixed in there. The boom or bust saying was made for a golfer like HV3. This week I look at him the same as Finau. The weather will play into his game. He can attack pins and bring us plenty of birdies to vault him up the leaderboards. The salary is priced to pay off.
BONUS***
TOP 30 BET
Kristoffer Ventura +300
Ventura is a huge risk. I’m taking a chance on this play but it’s a risk worth taking. He is a solid young player that brings top 10 upside when he is on. In his short full year on the PGA Tour he has already put together three top 10 finishes and a couple more top 20 finishes.
Statistically he lines up very well for this course. In my key stats he ranks 2nd, 17th, and 9th. Very reasonable in a weaker field like this one.
***
Ben Heisler, SI Gambling & Fantasy Analyst / Editor (@bennyheis)
BEST BETS TO WIN
Abraham Ancer +2000
Ancer leads off the list of no-brainer plays for me this week in his native country and is a terrific fit for Mayakoba. Via the great Rick Gehman, Ancer ranks 25th in driving accuracy this season playing on a course that plays just over 7,000 yards.
He’s also played well at El Camaleón in the past, with two top 10 finishes in 2019 and 2020. He’s coming in strong with a 13th place finish at the Masters, 4th at the Shriners, and no worse than T35th since the U.S Open. This is his opportunity.
Corey Connors +3000
Over his last four tournaments, Conners has finished 10th (RSM and the Masters), 24th at the Houston Open, and T8 at the Zozo. He ranks top 10 in strokes-gained total (9th), off-the-tee (4th), and approach (10th) over his last 24 rounds and is in elite form despite an elite price tag. For those playing DFS, it also doesn’t hurt that he ranks second behind only Justin Thomas in DraftKings points gained as well!
BEST VALUE PLAY(S)
Harold Varner III +7000
It’s always going to be a bit risky playing Varner, but I’ll feel comfortable rolling the dice with him this week despite missing the cut at the RSM.
Varner’s metrics are exceptional for his price: 1st in SG: around-the-green, 12th in SG: tee-to-green, and 7th in SG: short game. Because his irons weren’t great at the RSM, he missed the cut at just under 20% ownership. He always seems to bounce back after not qualifying for a weekend, finishing 15th at the Houston Open, 29th at the Safeway, and 29th at the PGA Championship following a missed cut this year.
BEST LONGSHOT(S)
Doug Ghim +12500
Ghim has averaged at least 80 DK points per event over the last month and is hitting a ton of GIR (greens in regulation) over the last several events.
He currently ranks 5th in SG: total amongst the entire field and has three top 25 finishes in his last three rounds, and four of his last five.
Ghim is accurate off the tee, very solid with his irons (13th in SG: approach) and if the putter decides to show up, he may just win the damn thing!
***
Roy Larking, SI Gambling & Fantasy Contributor (@StatsGuru6)
BEST BET TO WIN
Brooks Koepka (+1200)
Returning to action, following a long layoff due hip and knee injuries, Koepka struggled and finished T28 at the CJ Cup in October. Rounding back into form, he posted top seven results with a T5 at Vivint Houston Open and a T7 at the Masters tournament. Koepka is two-time PGA Championship and U.S. Open winner. His last tour victory was at the 2019 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational He currently sits 12th in the World Golf rankings and Justin Thomas (3rd) is the only player in the Mayakoba Golf Classic field who ranks higher.
BEST VALUE PLAY
Daniel Berger (+2200)
Following a long break, Berger is playing in his first PGA tournament since he finished T17 at the ZOZO Championship in late October. One of the hottest players during the 2020 season, Berger has posted nine Top 15 finishes over the last 14 tournaments he entered. That includes a victory at the Charles Schwab Challenge, plus solid results at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational (T2) a solo-third place finish at the Northern Trust and a T3 at the RBC Heritage. Berger has missed just one cut over 17 tournaments and I also like his (+100) Top 20 price.
TOP 10 FINISH
Harris English (+175)
English is my pick to post a Top 10 finish this week. Running hot recently, English has posted three Top 10 finishes during his last five PGA Tour events. He finished solo fourth at the U.S. Open, solo tenth at the CJ Cup and T6 at the RSM Classic two weeks ago. He has played well at this event with a solo-fifth place finish last year and he won the tournament in 2013. During the 2019-20 PGA season, English posted six Top 10 results including a solo second place finish at the Northern Trust and a T9 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
FAVORITE MATCHUP PLAY
Emiliano Grillo (-112) vs. Brian Harman (-112)
Emiliano Grillo vs. Brian Harman is one of many head-to-head matchup props available on the betting board at DraftKings Sportsbook. Grillo has an advantage over Harman in several categories recently. That includes SG: Off The Tee (4.33 – 2.57) SG: Tee To Green (.951 – .336) and SG: Approach To The Green (15.97 – 5.05) over the last 26 rounds for both players. In their last event played, the RSM Classic two weeks ago, Grillo finished T17 while Harman missed the cut. I am betting on Grillo finishing higher than Harman this week.
